Argentina: something must adjust

Agustin Perez

I will write about the economical situation of Argentina last year. In 2012 Argentina’s GDP contracted at a 0,5% annual rate due to external and internal factors, such as (i) the deceleration that experimented Brazil; (ii) the bad situation of the agriculture sector; and (iii) the discretionary administration of the exterior trade and other instruments (“dollar trap”).

But these factors there weren’t the main reason that explained the fell down in GDP. What these factors shown was the weakness that the economy had when a negative shock occurred. The main reason, instead, was that the economy had been growing over its potential after 2007, stimulated by the monetary and fiscal policy, and also keeping the tariffs of the public services and of the energy sector fixed. An evidence of that was the acceleration of the inflation rate, the growth of the fiscal deficit and the low level of investments (in key sectors, like energy) in the following years. Due to these things, the economy had been losing its competition and also its power to deal with crisis. In other words, the authorities had strongly favored the short term instead of the long term. And now we are in the long term.

Nowadays, the international reserves are in the lowest level since 2007 and the real exchange rate since 2001. I strongly believe that, if we don’t: (i) discover a lot of oil, (ii) increment the efficiency of the agriculture sector and of the companies in general, the current situation wil not continue.

Firstly, even though if the fiscal and monetary policy keeps its expansionary bias, in the current context these politics won’t have important real effects in GDP growth and in the employment rate. There are a lot of authors that explain that (Phillips, Friedman, Lucas). Secondly, the consumption, which was the pillar of the economical model, is in trouble because the companies don’t have the resources to give an increase of wages (in real terms). That is the consequence of the loss of competition. Finally, private investments will not recover in the next months due to the lack of confidence and of price incentives.

If we want to continue growing in the next years in response to internal factors, something will have to adjust. 

Es barato o caro el dolar a 10$?

Realizado por Agustin Perez..


Anteriormente habíamos postulado en la nota:  El Tipo de Cambio Nominal Oficial que era una buena opción comprar dolar blue en septiembre 2012 porque estaba relativamente barato. 

Hoy, el dolar ronda los 10$: Es caro o barato?

En términos reales tienen el mismo valor que en 2005/2006 (ver Gráfico), es decir vale lo mismo que casi después de la salida de la convertibilidad. Por lo cual, si nos guiamos por su valor real el dolar blue es relativamente caro. Lo estaríamos comprando en una parte alta del ciclo.

Pero no necesariamente los precios están determinados por los fundamentals reales en el corto plazo. Hay 2 ejemplos claros respecto a ello. Uno es Venezuela en donde el tipo de cambio paralelo no tiene nada que ver con el TCR (ver Gráfico) y el segundo el precio de los departamentos en la Argentina. 

Es decir, en momentos en los cuales la moneda no es confiable (siempre) y las tasas reales son negativas el ahorrista busca instrumentos mas seguros para refugiarse como el dolar y los departamentos. Esto hace subir el precio de estos activos y el fundamental pasa a ser una prima por seguridad. 

Actualmente, en Argentina en un contexto de caída en las reservas, atraso cambiario, estancamiento de la actividad, agujero energético,  cepo cambiario se comenzó a percibir una fuerte incertidumbre económica. Y como los departamentos dejaron de ser confiables con el tema de la pesificasion, la gente se volcó fuertemente al dolar marginal.

De este modo, la prima de seguridad puede explicar un dolar a mas de 10$. Ya paso en Venezuela. Depende de la capacidad del Gobierno de generar confianza para que esto no suceda.